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Date : 04/07/2023

Fortescue Metals Group (ASX: FMG): Analysing the Factors Driving Share Price Growth

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd (ASX: FMG) has witnessed a remarkable upward trajectory in its share price, soaring 26% over the past year. This has led investors to ponder whether this positive trend will continue and whether Fortescue Metals Group is poised for solid growth in FY24.

This article will delve into the key factors that indicate a potential for robust growth in the coming year. By analysing the robust iron ore price outlook, the strength of Chinese demand and steel exports, the progress in the Fortescue Future Industries (FFI) division, and the potential for profitability and dividends, we can better understand Fortescue’s growth prospects in FY24.

FMG: First half of FY23 Highlights

FMG shares are trading at $22.18 surged 26% in the past year. Its current market cap is approximately 68.2 Billion AUD.

Fortescue Metals Group shares news

  1. First half of FY23: Average revenue of US$87 per dry metric tonne
  2. Net profit after tax (NPAT): US$2.37 billion
  3. Free cash flow: US$1.57 billion
  4. Earnings per share (EPS): A$1.15
  5. Interim dividend per share: 75 Australian cents

FMG: Robust Iron Ore Price Outlook

Fortescue Metals Group’s fortunes are heavily tied to the price of iron ore, given that most of its earnings are derived from this commodity. Iron ore is trading at around US$110 per tonne, which lays a solid foundation for Fortescue’s financial performance.

Forecasts indicate that prices are expected to remain above the US$100 per tonne mark, suggesting a positive outlook for the company. If iron ore prices stay at these levels, Fortescue could generate significant profits, boosting investor confidence and driving solid growth in FY24.

FMG: Strong Chinese Demand and Steel Exports

China plays a pivotal role in driving the demand for iron ore, and Fortescue is well-positioned to benefit from this demand. Despite China’s economy not operating at full capacity, its steel exports have reached a seven-year high, driven by strong demand from Africa and Asia. This sustained demand helps to uphold the current iron ore price, which is advantageous for Fortescue.

Fortescue’s profitability and share price will likely experience positive momentum as Chinese steel exports continue to thrive. The allure of investing in a company that is well-positioned to capitalise on the robust demand for iron ore may further attract investors seeking exposure to the iron ore market.

FMG: Progress in Fortescue Future Industries (FFI)

Fortescue’s commitment to sustainable energy solutions is embodied through its Fortescue Future Industries (FFI) division. FFI focuses on green energy projects, such as the production of green hydrogen and green ammonia. Notably, completing construction works at the electrolyser facility in Gladstone, Queensland, marks a significant milestone for FFI.

Furthermore, Fortescue is progressing on various projects, including the Norwegian Holmaneset, Kenya, and Gibson Island projects in Queensland. As these projects advance and FFI inches closer to tangible results, investor confidence in Fortescue’s long-term prospects will likely grow. The progress in the green energy sector positions Fortescue for potential expansion and diversification, which could contribute to solid growth in FY24.

FMG: Potential Profitability and Dividends

The confluence of a robust iron ore price outlook, strong Chinese demand, and progress in FFI projects creates favourable conditions for Fortescue’s profitability and the distribution of dividends to shareholders.

In the first half of FY23, Fortescue achieved notable financial results, including significant net profit after tax (NPAT), robust free cash flow, earnings per share (EPS), and an interim dividend per share.

As long as iron ore prices remain above the profitable threshold and Chinese demand continues to support Fortescue’s operations, the company’s earnings potential remains promising. This can translate into attractive dividends for shareholders, making Fortescue an appealing investment option and potentially driving solid growth in FY24.


Fortescue Metals Group possesses several key factors that indicate a potential for solid growth in FY24. The robust outlook for iron ore prices, supported by sustained prices above the profitable threshold, forms a strong foundation for Fortescue’s profitability.

Additionally, the strength of Chinese demand for iron ore and the flourishing steel exports further support Fortescue’s positive outlook. Moreover, the progress made by the Fortescue Future Industries division in green energy projects enhances the company’s long-term prospects. With potential profitability, attractive dividends, and growing investor confidence in Fortescue’s growth potential, the company is well-positioned for a good year ahead.

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